US falsity’s aftermaths on Iran Capital Market analyzed!
– Finally, after rounds of pointless speculations, last night the US president announced his country’s withdrawal from JCPoA. Agah Group analysts broke down its aftermaths on Iran Capital Market. Short term vision is range bounced sessions with no targeted ups and downs waiting for EU response. Meantime, the administration shall devaluate IRR gradually in order to avoid sudden emotional FX mayhem.
The idea of threefold rates for USD/IRR is not far-fetched: an official 42,000 rate, a rate fueled by non-oil exports and a smuggling rate on streets for so-called luxury purposes. The second rate will be the basis of listed companies’ activities. For most tickers, there shall be no changes in their quantitative sales. At least the ones whose customers are basically in the region. Firms with strong USD revenues, like National Copper Industries, are more exposed to sanctions snap back largely due to its EU exports. Steelmakers, on the other hand, have ambiguities embedded within especially small to mid-sized businesses. Most probably they will face with lower margins. As for the Petrochemical sector, there is the problem of catalyzers along with their inevitable changes in their products baskets. Other analysts believe that Tehran Stock Exchange will yield it investors around 20-30% profit over the coming year and mostly on its second half.
– Following all the grey areas in exports’ foreign exchange revenues and re-entrance of said currency to the nation’s reserves, the vice president of Hasan Rouhani announced repatriation of USD 1 bn worth of export revenues at USD/IRR 42,000 just after the unification decision. Moreover, the cabinet members are to sit with industries experts finding a workable solution to repatriate USD export revenues that are in all parties’ favour.
Strong finish following Trump decision!
In the Market
The stock market ended today’s session with a strong finish as investors chewed on President Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear agreement all the way through the closing bell. Mostly indebted to the massive support of blue-chip institutions the TEDPIX (+0.09%) ended the day a tick higher, while the IFEX (0.78%) finished a tick lower. Small caps couldn’t support the rally though since there are huge ambiguities towards last night aftermaths.
As explained earlier, Metal sector (-0.28%) as the most exposed industry finished the day with almost all of tickers in red. Giants like Isfahan Steel Co. (FOLD1, -1.37%) traded in huge volumes which made the sector first in terms of trading value.
On the upside, few mega caps in Oil Products sector (+0.39%) pushed the index higher mostly due to rising price of global crude. Bandar Abbas Oil Refinery (PNBA1, +1.94%) scored the most positive point on TEDPIX (52.16). Much alike Chemical sector (+0.56%) also performed better than expected with an acceptable volume of trades.
Telecommunication sector (+0.96%) experienced one its golden days while its giants, MCI (HMRZ1, +1.07%) and TCI (MKBT1, +0.82%). A large part today’s institutional support was seen in this sector.
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by Agah Brokerage Firm on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes only. Agah does not assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
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