Parallel Investment Markets changes course in Iran Economy!
– The first month of 1397 Q3 is now ending with s change of course between parallel investment markets of Iran Economy. After the unexpected and truth be told unproductive advances on FX and Gold coins markets during the last couple of months, now analyses show that the stock market precessed other rivals and delivered handsome returns over Sep/Nov 2018. Tehran Stock Exchange has yielded 17% while USD/IRR stamped -3.4% (a bearish course after 15 months!) and gold coins performed only -2.4%.
– The Chinese Bank of Kunlun, an old partner with Iran in terms of financial transactions and credit lines, warned its customers that all the relations with Iranian counterparties will be halted from October 30 in the wake of upcoming US sanctions. The bank asked its customers to complete and settle all their Iran related FX remittance orders.
– Just days short of the new wave of US sanctions, Iran changed its financial messaging services from SWIFT to SPFS, a Russian analogue made exclusively to circumvent United States sanctions. Moreover, CBI is considering to run a localized version of SWIFT, whose acronym in Farsi is SEPAM, in order to do financial transactions with the rest of the world.
– Tomorrow, a new piece of Islamic Treasury Bills is to offer to the public on Iran Fara Bourse. This issue worth IRR 23,000 bn (USD 547.62 mn – USD/IRR @ 42,000) and will be matured on August 03, 2020. Counting this new one in, there is 26 outstanding issue of ITB as of today in Iran Debt Market. The following table shows the details:
In the Market
The stock market retracted from its previous high today in the wake of H1 performance reports. Despite better than expected semi-annual financial statements, the participants were not quite satisfied and chose to add up the sale pressure right from the opening bell. TEDPIX (-1.31%) fell for more than 2,400 points while the IFEX (+0.13%) managed to win the session on the thin ice.
Metals (-2.55%), Iron Ores (-3.76%) and Utility (-4.52%) had the most negative effect on today’s market. Most of the giants in said sectors had their H1 profits tied to FX rate translations and not the real production, therefore faced with massive supply form early morning and closed at their bottoms. However, analysts believe that investors has overreacted today and the fundamentally sound tickers will find their bullish trend once again. Moreover, the market has monthly performance reports right after this and those financials can be a game changer some TSE or IFB tickers.
Any good or bad news on the following subjects can have massive effects, either way, on medium to large-cap companies in different sectors:
- The FX translation rates for the Banking sector;
- The effects of a free market FX rate feedstock for Oil Production industry;
- The future of commodities export after the second round of sanctions (especially metallic products);
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