Iran-Switzerland dedicated pharma line activates!
– The chair of Iran-Switzerland chamber of commerce announced that the promised dedicated financial line between two countries for the purpose of pharma exports has been activated and is now waiting for an injection of funds from Iran’s side. Stressing on the fact that as of now there are no funds in EU belongs to Iran, he added if and when Iranian funds flow from Asia to Europe, the financial line would act instantly, however, the transfer of funds need the approval of the US first. The Switzerland government will probably use BCP bank to carry out the transactions.
– An official of NIOC announced that until this year end, a figure of IRR 30,000 bn (USD 260.87 mn – USD/IRR 105,000) Sukuk al-Intifa’a will be issued to finance the development of oil rigs production optimization projects. Of which, IRR 10,000 bn (USD 86.95 mn) is in the line of next week’s offerings. After these developments projects, the daily production capacity of Iranian oil producers will be up by 280K barrels per day.
– The statistical centre published the data for Iran inflation rate for the month of Dey (Dec 2018 – Jan 2019). It seems that point to point inflation rate of the nations now stands at 40% which is somehow unique after the previous round of economic sanctions back in 2013/14. The good news is that the slope of monthly inflation rate growth is bound to 2% (down from 10). Tobacco has the highest jump in price while fossil fuels and energy have the lowest.
In the Market
Equities performed slightly higher today to end a volatile week just a tick higher. TEDPIX (+0.08%) jumped to above the 163K level right after the opening bell, however, the sale force was bigger than investors thought and the index retracted to below 162K once again. IFEX (-0.02%) almost stayed untouched and closed at 1,980.15.
The trend of retail participation came back to its correct path from yesterday and it is believed that today’s figures are not noticeable. The general sense of the market still has lots of ambiguities and question marks that are highly related to the political environment rather than the capital market itself.
There are two major points to seek on the coming week both can change the short to the mid-term trend of all parallel investment markets. The possible official announcement of Iran related SPV by the EU powers is definitely the most important of those and could relax the recent FX tensions amid the nation. The probable ratification of FATF related amendments is the other one which is now more in the spotlight as the cabinet members confirmed a sent letter to the supreme leader expressing the importance of joining the FATF community.
The fluctuation range of USD/IRR is believed to be from a bottom of 97,000 up to a ceiling of 122,000 in short term and if the top breaks, a figure of 150,000 will be not far fetched. The risk to reward ratio of investing in Bahar Azadi gold coins is not 16/19 which seems a lot higher than before and will not make any short-term investment logical. Gold coins can see a price of IRR 50 mn a piece at max while the downside sets at IRR 36 mn.
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by Agah Brokerage Firm on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes only. Agah does not assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
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