Iran Economy post-sanctions aftermath analyzed!
– Iranian Parliament research centre analyzed the aftermath of US imposed sanctions on Iran Economy growth in two different scenarios. The main difference between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios is on how much EU will support Iran after the US withdrawal from JCPoA. The more optimistic story is under the presumptions that:
- Oil sales reduced by 500K bpd over H2;
- Auto production reduced by 22% from Q3 on;
- Other industries (except Food and beverage, Chemicals and Metals) witness a loss of 2.5% in transactions;
- Imports reduced by 9% over H2
Should this assumption make a true statement, the economic growth of the nation would stand at -0.5% for 2018/19.
However, the more pessimistic scenario suggests that:
- Oil sales reduced by 1mn bpd over H2;
- Auto production reduced by 45% from Q3 on;
- Other industries (except Food and beverage, Chemicals and Metals) witness a loss of 5.0% in transactions;
- Imports reduced by 18% over H2
This story would lead to a -2.8% economic growth for Iran by the end of 2018/19.
– Avicenna Labaratories Inc., the first Iranian Pharma Producers who have patents on both United States and EU markets, is soon to be listed on Iran Fara Bourse second market for a 10% share IPO. The companies total assets based on 2017/18 consolidated financial statements reach IRR 1,120 bn (USD 26.67 mn) and its latest registered capital is IRR 350 (USD 8.3 mn).
– After retraction of the Ministry of Petroleum from freeing the pricing base of oil products at a free market FX rate, Iranian Oil Refineries made another amendment on the overnight decision’s profitability effects and faced massive sale pressure the other trading session. Now Agah analysis shows that the sudden decision-makings of policy-makers incur a pecuniary loss to the individual shareholders who by the way are withdrawing their funds from the sector rapidly. The below image shows the datils:
In the Market
Equities eked out a moderate victory on today’s session, closing above 137K level after the other day’s plummet. TEDPIX (+0.52%) hiked for 706 green points while IFEX (+0.4%) compensate just for a little part of its massive loss the other day.
Today’s jump was most indebted to reopened Banking (+4.93%) tickers with Mellat Bank (BMLT, +16.67%) being its strong leader. After get haled for its latest GM, the bank announced that a free market FX translation rate would affect its balance sheet greatly and faced with an absolutely massive demand. The ticker changed hands for more than 1 bn shares and placed 238.52 green points on the overall index. Other sector’s giants like Saderat Bank (BSDR, +1.55%) and Tejarat Bank (BTEJ, +11.26%) also performed far better than expected only with much lower trading volume.
In Chemical (+1.62%) sector, trades were better today as the ministry of petroleum is still wage on the FX rate which chemicals and il products must use in their financial statements. The sector’s mega-cap, Persian Gulf Petrochemical (PKLJ, +3.16%) was again on the top of leader’s board and placed 311.91 positive points. Its sister company, Pars Petrochemical (PARS, +2.36%) also performed good and changed hands for almost 5 mn shares.
On the flip side, the heavy weighted Metals (-0.78%) sector was not very popular today and its blue-chips performed worse than expected. Isfahan Mubaraka Steel (FOLD, -0.90%) led the bearish trend today with -82.56 red points on the index. National Copper industries (MSMI, -1.22%) also fell amid the rumours, which proved to be wrongful, of its export difficulties due to the first set of US sanctions.
In general, the market needed a break after a hell of a week it had with chaotic reports on IME commodities pricing schemes and uncertainties of the political climate. However, analysts believe that the coming week could be a great one for equities as they are still falling behind their potentials.
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by Agah Brokerage Firm on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes only. Agah does not assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
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