Iran 2019/20 budget wraps up with a warning status!
– Rumours have that Iran 2019/20 budget is going to be based on a $65 a barrel of crude and USD/IRR translation rate of 55,000. The fear of losing more income in the wake of US final sanctions along with concerns of the nation’s livelihoods and controlling the unleashed inflation made the task super challenging for the president Rouhani’s administration. Final suggestions for the next year’s budget bill shall be presented to the parliament until mid-November and setting the basics of revenues sources (FX translations and oil price) has the most influence on the economic status in the days of sanctions.
– Many sources stated that South Korea is seeking exemptions on the US sanctions with regards to its oil purchases from Iran. US secretary of state announced that unless previous buyers of Iran oil commit to reducing their shipments, more than 20%, there would be no exemption for them. Moreover, it seems that the development of “Chabahar Port”, which counts as the artery for development of Afghanistan as well, might be subjected to sanctions exemption in order to fulfil US interests. The below table shows details of Iran oil exports during the last couple of months:
– After its Sunday meeting in Abu Dhabi, it was revealed that Iran has two sits in FEAS board for another board term. Iran Fara Bourse and CSDI will sit on Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges along with Abu Dhabi, Kazakhstan, Armenian Nasdaq, Oman, Greece, Egypt and Palestine.
In the Market
Iranian equities experienced another volatile session on the Tehran Stock Exchange after the other day’s rally recouped a good chunk of the exchange monthly losses. TEDPIX (+0.08%) ended the sell/buy battle with a narrow victory while IFEX (-1.08%) had a worse day.
The general market condition is in a state of wonder just days before the deadline of US sanctions and that made investors be cautious with their trades. Moreover, the weight of false anticipations and wrong interpretation of rumours broke the market back and shows the shallow depth of Iran Capital Market. Just a mischievous misreading of a proposed FX translation rate of USD/IRR 55,000 for the administration’s next year budget, which has nothing to do with the rate listed tickers are selling their products, made the day black for components of Oil Products (-2.44%) sector.
Also, unformed news has that nearly all shipping lines of Iran are going to be suspended after November 04, 2018 which added the sale pressure in Transportation (-1.58%) sector. It is anticipated that until after this date, the market will continue its ping-pong play with a serious sensitivity to any political news regardless of fundamental analysis.
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