India stalls Iran oil purchases waiting on US green light!
– Reuters have that Indian oil refineries are now putting a halt on any Iran oil purchases for at least a month waiting to get the green light from the US on an extended sanctions waiver. As the deadline of US exemptions for 8 countries on their Iran oil purchases closing in, now the second largest importer of the nation’s oil after China, which has imported 9 mn barrels of crude per month under the current waiver (50% less than before JCPoA withdrawal), is to sit on its hands hoping for an answer from the US government in 7-10 days. It seems that the two countries are nowhere near a foreseeable settlement anytime soon and the president trump other night’s move tagging IRGC as an FTO shows how far the Middle East is from stability.
– For the second year in a row, Agah Group has been nominated by the Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges (FEAS) as one of the top 3 best members of both Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse. Agah services reached new barriers last year and its alternative investments department officially invested (venture capital) in Karafs startup (active in Iran’s digital health market) series B fundraising. Moreover, the fund/asset management of the group topped again last year with an astonishing performance of +4,800% over 10 years.
– In its latest report, the world bank has predicted a negative growth of -3.8% for the year 2019 for Iran economy. The country had a record of 3.8% growth over 2017 which reduced to -1.6% in 2018. The report suggests that Iran will be once again on the right track after the year 2020 with a very mild slope (0.9% and 1.0% for 2020 and 2021 respectively). The below picture has the details:
In the Market
Equities performed far better than expected today despite the fears of an emotional session after the US move to tag IRGC as an FTO. TEDPIX (+0.97%) jumped for almost 2K points and continued its super bullish trend of the year 1398 (2019/20). This is while IFEX (+0.73%) growth was less aggressive as the index jumped meteorically just days before. The trading volume and value are now once again backed to prosperous days as almost all analyses suggest a handsome performance of the capital market for the current year.
Experts believe that in the coming months having uninvested resources in the form of either cash or bank deposit will reduce the value of holdings greatly as it is expected for the monthly inflation to stands above 2.5%. Moreover, there are no signs of a meaningful slowdown in companies’ operations in terms of exports and repatriating the proceeds. The market P/E ratio stands now at 7.12 which will be corrected by 20% to sit on 6 after the GAs season. The price of Bahar Azadi gold coin has now the biggest bubble than ever and new investments in these price levels are not recommended.
The capital market has a short term performance potential of 20-30% from this point on considering that the underlying assumptions stay intact. Technical charts show a target of 220-225K for the TEDPIX growth in less than 6 months as the fifth wave of its Elliot analysis. The NIMA platform FX rates also reached new highs which bring a whole new set of opportunities for the export-based tickers.
On the political front, there are no signs of any improvements on international levels anytime before the second half of 1398. Adding to this, the ratification of FATF related amendments, US oil exemptions future and IRGC new sanctions will herald a shaky road ahead for the next 6 months.
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by Agah Brokerage Firm on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes only. Agah does not assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
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