IMF predicts a 30% inflation for Iran Economy!
– Reuters reports that IMF released its latest research on the global economy and of course Iran’s situation. According to news, IMF reduced Iran Economy growth rate to -1.5% for the year 2018 (previously was +4.4%!) and also predicted that Iran will face with an inflation rate of 29.6%. The unemployment rate would reach 12.8 as well which shows 1.1% growth.
– The advisor to the president in the Free-trade zone matters has announced that the Iranian international exchange project is right on its tracks and explained more about its mechanics. Pointing out that the absence of a sound persuasion mechanism is the main reason behind the low level of international participation in the Iranian mainland capital market, he emphasises that this project is to overcome such difficulties. Apparently, the Iranian international exchange will have the following characteristics:
- It would be established with a joint investment of domestic and foreign investors;
- All the communications and announcements would be in an international language;
- Its activities will be based on constructional or investment projects which are being carried out on the mainland (and offer in the mainland exchanges);
- The clearing and settlement will be outsourced to an internationally accepted bank.
– After the inauguration of the NIMA platform with its new mechanism, acting as the FX secondary market, and during the first 202 days of 1397 (2018/19), stats show that a monthly figure of circa USD 1 bn of petrochemical producers’ FX revenues has been injected into the Iranian economy. The translation (USD/IRR) rate for these exporters was between 75,000 to 76,000 level while other non-oil producers can benefit from higher rates of near 90,000. It is anticipated that by the end of the current year a total amount of USD 6.986 bn will enter the economy from petrochemical exports while the rest of their revenues will be used for raw material purchases, catalyzers, FX facilities instalment payments and marketing purposes.
In the Market
Euiqities performed surprisingly better than expected as the market seems to have gotten back on the right track after all. TEDPIX (+3.23%) jumped for +5,600 points to reclaim its position on the 180K level. IFEX (+2.50%) performed handsomely as well and closed at 2,031.08 ending its five sessions long correcting. The trading volume and value were up sharply and as Agah analyst had predicted, the strikes of individuals cash withdrawal have come to an end.
As above image demonstrates, a figure of circa IRR 2,000 bn (USD 47.62 mn – USD/IRR 42,000) has injected into the market by the retail investors and despite its meaningful difference with figures of the previous rally, it still shows that the capital market is the best available choice amid ordinary investors.
IT (+3.56%), Metals (+3.78%) and Oil Products (+4.94%) are the sectors which have attracted most of the newly injected cash. Moreover, the strong fundamentals of said industries along with rising crude and global metal prices made them the perfect choice for a mid-term investment.
The below table is for retail trading value (blocks, wholesales, ETF and debt securities trades excluded) based on the free market rate USD:
The total retail trading volume of today’s session was USD 131 mn which registered a rise of 39% contrary to yesterday’s figure.
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by Agah Brokerage Firm on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes only. Agah does not assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
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