Experts’ Opinions on Iran’s Economy
With the new Persian calendar year starting, projections on key variables affecting the macro-economic conditions were offered by well-known economists and experts in order to provide people and economic practitioners with a clearer vision on the economic prospect of the country. In one conducted by Donya-e Eqtesad paper, involving 66 economists and university professors, variables like the economic growth, inflation rate and foreign currency price were investigated.
As the first variable, their opinions on the range of economic growth rate were asked; more than half of participants estimated this rate to hover between 3-5%; 30% predicted this rate to fluctuate between 1-3% while 12% had the idea that Iran will go through a more than 5% economic growth in the year ending 19 March 2018.
The second question asked addressed the inflation rate; more than 50% of experts assumed that it will range from 10-12% while 33% thought that this rate will go beyond 12% in the new year. It was so while 53% of experts had estimated the inflation rate to be between 10-12% in the same period last year.
The third part dealt with projections on dollar price, which was followed by about ¾ of experts believing its price to fluctuate between IRR 39,000-45,000 with around 20% of them thinking its price to range from IRR 45,000-50,000.
As the last part, they were asked to present their opinions on the economic performance of the 11th administration, scoring them from 0-10. While 60 experts had graded the administration with 6.22 point out of 10 in the previous year, the performance of the administration remained nearly the same (6.25 point) in the previous year ended 20 March 2017, considering the economic performance acceptable.
With IRR 1,500,000 mn in capital, Iran Khodro Investment Development have predicted to realize IRR 75 EPS for the FY ending 19 March 2018, demonstrating a 4% negative adjustment compared to its previous estimates.
In the Market
Announcing the production of 1.3 mn vehicles in the previous year, the head of IDRO stated that 1.5 mn automobiles have been planned to be produced in the current year, stressing the finalization of 6 foreign contracts in the previous year. The majority of tickers in Automotive group ended above their flat lines with Iran Tractor Forging and Tolid Mehvar Khodro closing with buy queues; other companies active in the spare part manufacturing area also witnessed positive trades.
Other commodities went through a declining price trend or remained unchanged. Zangan Zinc Industry and Alumrad were a few in the Metals sector closing with buy queues. Although Shahid Bahonar Copper went down by 1.13%, with its consecutive positive adjustments and considerable development plans, which will be operational in the current year, along with its strong fundamentals, it is interpreted as a good option for purchasing and holding.
Besides, having adjusted its EPS by 28% (increase from IRR 810 to IRR 1030), Bama Company ticker was halted. Considering its estimates for the FY ending 19 March 2018 and the current global zinc price, experts are expecting a higher than 30% positive adjustment and at least an IRR 1300 EPS in this year.
Nearly all names in the Construction space were warmly welcomed, led by Shomal-e Sharq Housing Investment. Tickers like Tehran Housing Investment, Baqmishe Urbanization and Saman Gostar-e Esfahan closed with buy queues.
Following the trend seen on Wednesday, the whole Sugar space closed with buy queues.
Symbols in the Cement industry went through positive trades, with several like Sepahan Cement, Sharq Cement, Kerman Cement and Shomal Cement closing with buy queues, which can be attributed to the listing of cement on the Iran Mercantile Market; they are expected to experience a sharp growth mainly due to the distribution of proper earnings and no price growth in the previous year.
Oil price went above $53.45 in global markets. As the result, companies active in the oil refining field listed on Oil Products industry observed positive trades. Pasargad Oil was the only one closing with a sell queue.
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by Agah Brokerage Firm on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes only. Agah does not assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
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