Yesterday the value and volume of trades recorded incredible numbers. Saderat Bank could record the highest retail volume of trades since so far by over 1 billion and 130 million shares. The possibility of lifting swift sanctions besides the governmental support for strengthening banks such as approving their raising capital and selling the shares of banks’ subsidiaries would make significant changes in this sector. It could be said that the banking sector is the leader now. The automotive sector has also attracted a huge amount of new liquidity during the past few days. It seems the risk of sanctions and political tensions are getting eliminated from the market and the equities are flowing to the market. Today the new price levels attracted more sellers. The value and volume of today’s trades was considerably less than yesterday while it is still more than last year.
While the inflation rate has slipped to 15 %, many experts believe that the deposit interest rate cut must be done to get the liquidity out of the banking system. By Lausanne framework deal and the possibility of nuclear agreement the probability of cut in the banking interest rate has increased. However, the banking account situations will also matter for this decision. Currently most of the banks have high bad debts accounts that have declined their lending power.
Following the announced framework nuclear agreement, the chief central bank of Iran, Seyf, encouraged the banks for being more active and being prepared for the bold international attendances in near future. He also warned that the value of non-current banks’ receivables has been increased significantly and raising capital must be in this year banks’ plans for better capital adequacy ratio. Before the sanctions, Saderat and Mellat banks had the most international transactions and high percentage of their income was from the exchange transactions. Now they are more attracted in the market as the possibility of opening swift gets stronger.
After the nuclear framework agreement announcement the banking and automotive sectors recorded for the highest demand in today’s market. The Saderat bank share, which has dropped to 70 IRR during the last year, jumped today by 4% to 95 IRR and recorded more than 1 bn buy orders on that price. It’s noteworthy to mention that the TSE has price fluctuation limitation between -4 to +4 percent on each share. Today most of the shares witnessed huge buy orders on their highest possible price (+4%) with no sales orders in front (Buy Queue).
During the last few days there was a redoubled optimism in the market over the nuclear talks. This time the market reacts differently and instead of waiting for the releasing result or deadline extension, most of the investors recognized their gains yesterday and in today’s early trades. They preferred to stay out through the day on any headline coming out of Lausanne. However, as the ministerial meeting in Lausanne started at 7:00 am local time the buying pressure raised the TSE index by more than 0.5 percent. With regards to the absence of big legal market players due to New Year holidays, the retail emotions are out of control. Many investors believe a deal is in the making. Even without some sort of agreement a deadline extension is expected. Any statement coming from Lausanne will determine the fate of market.
The possibility of more positive adjustments for Iran Combine Manufacturing Co’ EPS – Daily Market News
Iran Combine Manufacturing Co increases its forecasted EPS for FY2015 by 53%. Predicting 50% jump in the company’s productions compared with last year is considered as the main reason for this improvement. This prediction is due to the developments of production line units, the government supports and the rise of human resources. The minimum 10 percent increase in the rate of sale is also forecasted in the company’s FY2015 budget. The company also predicted the export of 100 produced machine to Tajikistan over the next year. Moreover, by the order of the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, the company is planning for importing the Combine and heavy tractors with the official exchange rate in near future.
The crude steel production of 8 main steel producers in Iran including Mobarakeh, Khouzestan, Esfahan, Hormozgan, Saba, Khorasan, Alloy and National Iranian Steel Companies reached over 15 million tones in the first 11 months period of year ended 20 Mar 2015, Iranian Mines and Mining Development and Renovation Organization reported. The number shows 8% increase compared with same period the year before.
No active participation of investors in market due to current New Year holidays, more optimistic view over nuclear negotiations and reopening of oil refinery companies after almost a year can be considered as the main reasons for upward trend in Today’s market. Although the tensions in Yemen overshadow the nuclear talks in Lausanne, the possibility of oral or written agreements is getting stronger.
The inflation rate was announced 0.6 percent for the last month of the year ended 20 Mar 2015. By considering this number the annual inflation rate will reach 14.3 percent which is unprecedented in the last four years. The government was successful in curbing the monthly inflation in the last year and luckily the global recession in the last six months has accelerated it.
Finally, the refinery companies released their reports after the deadline they were given. Their published reports and profits are so weird that there is no space to discuss them. Take Bandar Abbas Oil Refining Co. as an example: The company announced its profit through 4 scenarios from 400 to 950 IRR. The reopening of the refineries and their heavy negative adjustments caused the market to drop more than 5.5 percent to 61500 units yesterday.