The crude steel production of 8 main steel producers in Iran including Mobarakeh, Khouzestan, Esfahan, Hormozgan, Saba, Khorasan, Alloy and National Iranian Steel Companies reached over 15 million tones in the first 11 months period of year ended 20 Mar 2015, Iranian Mines and Mining Development and Renovation Organization reported. The number shows 8% increase compared with same period the year before.
No active participation of investors in market due to current New Year holidays, more optimistic view over nuclear negotiations and reopening of oil refinery companies after almost a year can be considered as the main reasons for upward trend in Today’s market. Although the tensions in Yemen overshadow the nuclear talks in Lausanne, the possibility of oral or written agreements is getting stronger.
The inflation rate was announced 0.6 percent for the last month of the year ended 20 Mar 2015. By considering this number the annual inflation rate will reach 14.3 percent which is unprecedented in the last four years. The government was successful in curbing the monthly inflation in the last year and luckily the global recession in the last six months has accelerated it.
Finally, the refinery companies released their reports after the deadline they were given. Their published reports and profits are so weird that there is no space to discuss them. Take Bandar Abbas Oil Refining Co. as an example: The company announced its profit through 4 scenarios from 400 to 950 IRR. The reopening of the refineries and their heavy negative adjustments caused the market to drop more than 5.5 percent to 61500 units yesterday.
- Following the review of the bill over removing barriers against the competitive production and enhancing the financial system of the country, the Parliament allowed the refineries to export petroleum products surplus domestic needs on the condition that the funds of purchased crude oil and gas condensate are paid. According to this additional provision, the settlements are required to be done based on 95% of Persian Gulf FOB price in cash or a one-month credit to the relevant state-owned company affiliated to the ministry of oil. The state is also obliged to pay an annual contribution to the national development fund.
- An establishment and operation license has been issued for the hundred and fiftieth fund in the market, Behshar Development Group fund, as a market maker. The funds which are dedicated to market making are not allowed to buy any other shares out of the subject of their activity. The main goals of lunching these kinds of funds are increasing the liquidity and smoothing the trades.
- During the past few days, in different events, the chief of central bank of Iran, Seif, emphasized the central bank’s plan for the banking interest rates. However, he asked the banks to reintegrate the rates first by themselves before any action taken place by the central bank. The Melli Bank’s CEO also said that the deposit interest rate could be defined at 20%level, if the inflation rate would be announced at 15%. .it is clear that the interest rate will definitely decrease next year but it’s unlikely to become less than 18%.
- The refinery companies released their 9 and 11 month production and sales reports. Bandar Abbas Oil Refinery Co. announced 4 percent decline in its production and 1 percent increase in its sales compared with last year during the 9 months period. Tabriz Oil refinery Co. in its 10 month report reduced the production and sales by 6 and 5 percent respectively compared with same period last year. It’s noteworthy to mention that the company’s production and sales reduction is due to an overhaul in last May and June. No specific changes in production and sale are noticeable in Lavan Oil refinery’s report. Shiraz Refinery Oil could also cover 92% of its forecasted budget in 11 months. Almost 10 months ago, based on 2014 state budget, the board of Iranian National Oil Refinery & Distribution Co. passed a bill of which the price of 5 main oil products including Petrol, Diesel Fuel, Mazut, Kerosene, Jet Fuel should be determined by their quality. Following this bill the trades of all refinery companies have halted. Not setting the prices based on quality by Ministry of Oil is announced as the reason for this halts. However the oil ministry denied this claim and announced that all the prices had been declared to the Iranian National Oil Refinery & Distribution Co. Nevertheless, in none of the released reports captioned feed or sales rates. In addition there is no news regarding the time the trades of this companies will be allowed and reopened.
- Focusing on new financial Instruments and project funds are the strong government intentions for next year. “Capital raising and financing for the oil, industrial and construction projects are the main programs of governments in capital markets for next year”, Mohammadi, the economic director of Economic & Finance Ministry said. He also added that the government is also emphasizing on increasing the commodities and their range in the Commodities and Energy exchanges for next year. Based on his statements setting tax exemption for market makers from 2016 is on the agenda.
- In the metal sector, among 19 companies only 7 predicted the rise in their return compared with current year. At the top is Kashan Amirkabir Steel Co. with 23 percent increase in sale and 108 percent increase in its net income. The company predicted to reach 905 IRR EPS in FY2015 with 111 percent improvement compared with current year. Mobarekh Steel CO. with the highest market cap in the group, forecasted 23% profit margin with 11 percent decline in its EPS compared with current year. With regard to the market cap, the second place belongs to National Iranian Copper Industries Co. , which predicted 5 percent decline in its next year return. However, National Iranian Lead & Zinc Co. which is a losing company forecasted 8 percent increase in its next year sale and decreased the total loss 137 percent compare with current year.